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PostHeaderIcon EU Central Bank prepares

Greece's growing budget deficit worries its government as it struggles with state finances.  This dominates this week's meeting of EU finance ministers.

Managing Director at Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Moritz Kraemer looks at sustainability of the euro.

He notes, "Speculation about eurozone break-up is now in mainstream economic and political debate."

But he argues "the possibility is remote.  Eurozone governments are aware of the risks of exiting the eurozone and the potential costs of such an action for their economies.

In the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says a euro break-up has reached the point where the European Central Bank has issued a legal analysis of what happens if a country leaves monetary union.

He notes that " eurozone exit entails expulsion from the EU." Evans-Pritchard adds, "This is a warning shot for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. If they fail to marshal public support for draconian austerity, they risk being cast into Icelandic oblivion."

(We see where Gordon Brown gets his orders from).

Former IMF analyst Desmond Lachman says “ Greece is approaching the final stages of currency arrangement with every prospect that within two to three years, Greece's European membership will end with a bang."

In the Times, Brownen Maddox argues that the Greek govt's plan to balance its budget "remains incredible" and unable to avoid crisis  "Europe's most difficult decision this year would fall on Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, who has to decide whether to rescue Greece.

Greek default may matter more to the eurozone than it does to Greece itself. If Greece defaults, other countries with high debt will all face dramatically higher borrowing costs.  Merkel will "almost certainly" come to the rescue,

An Open Europe poll of German voters in June 2009 found 70% of Germans against using public money to bail out other countries in financial difficulties.

The European Journal  argues: "Why has no-one in the UK made the link between the introduction of the euro and the UK/European Credit Crunch ? "

(Where have they been? UKIP never tires of saying this).

She argues that "European exposure to domestic subprime credits is far less than America but our crisis is made worse by the greater error of monetary union when interest rates are pushed too low for  'one size fits all' European political elite."

More and more are talking about the impractical EU mess.

 

[Stuart Guppy]